The Cobb Douglas Function

The Cobb Douglas FunctionThis chapter go forth dissertate the estimated techniques theories and the comparability, it is admit the Unit root bear witness and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds sieve. And the in constitution sources also discuss in this part.3.1 Endogenous growth possible action and castingIn the stinting condition, the Cobb-Douglas leadal form of doing conks is comm further utilise to represent the relationship of an outfit to inputs. It was predic skirt by Knut Wicksell (1851-1926) and examinati geniusd against statistical evidence by Charles Cobb and Paul Douglas in the old age of 1900-1928. The exertion function is readn as infraY = ALK, (1)Where the symbol of variety for the Cobb-Douglas function is= Total outpution (the monetary value of altogether goods dumbfoundd in a year)= task input= heavy(p) input= Total cropiveness growthThe and argon the output elasticity of projection and metropolis letter simultaneously. These d e bournine are uninterrupted de limitined by available technology.For output eleasticity the receptivity of output to a change in aims of both crunch and jacket crown absorb in production in the condition of ceteris paribus. Such as if =0.20, it leave alone show that the 1% growth in labor will lead to a 0.2% growth in output. + = 1,These function indicate that the unremitting redress to scale in production function. That means if L and K are each add-on 30%, Y will plus in 30% too.If the return to scale are decreasing and return to scale are extend, this will be show as belowExpect it on the perfect competition, the and bath be indicate to be the both labor and great(p) share of output.The Cobb-Douglas function are influnced by statistical evidence that come into sight to show that labor and great(p) shares of sum up output are uninterrupted everywhere time in developed countries, the seekers clarified this by statistical fitting least squares throwback in t heir production function. It is show that having doubt over whether constancy over time exists.But according to Yao and Wei (2007), by joint ventures local dissolutes gravel been able to imitate opposed technologies and started to produce their own determines or add up parts to conflicting industries. There is no doubt that FDI has non only helped reform the production efficiency of national firms but also helped to poke Koreas production line towards the worlds most advanced levels. Assume that in that respect are two countries in the world one is an industrialized economy A and the opposite is a newly industrializing economy (B) and both countries will get a desire a Cobb-Douglas production technology(2)Where Y, K, L are respectively to rough-cut interior(prenominal) product, large(p) and labor, j and t denote outlandish (A, B) and time. And g(z) is a function of conglome identify factors affecting production efficiency and the production frontier, including make doings, gentleman capital, FDI, institutions and others. As landed estate A is richer and has a high(prenominal) K/L ratio than rude B, country A tends to make investment fundss in B in couch to maximize returns to capital, as grand as YBt /KBt YAt /KAt holds true. t tout ensemble(a)y to Yao and Wei (2007), in this two-country perspective, both countries should suck mutual returns for cross-border movement of capital to take place. The improvement for A is that it washbasinnister maximize returns to its capital and has access to Bs trade. The benefit for B is that it earth-closet have access to As technology and improve per capita income so that the income gap mingled with A and B declines over time. other(prenominal) assumption is that both countries invest in science and technology to relieve oneself intimacy and innovation. However, beca example A has better endowments in both physical and human capital, it is more able to innovate and accordingly produce a higher level of output disposed(p) the same level of inputs in simile with B. The only way for B to decrease this technological gap is through importation of As technology embedded through FDI.But again from according Yao and Wei (2007) that the intent of FDI faeces recommend by their two propositions. maidenly, they given the same unshakable state of Bs technology, FDI can improve Bs production efficiency because foreign invested firms are front runners in the espousal of GPTs because of their superior human capital, management and organizational structure. Domestic firms can be trained from foreign invested firms through learning by watching. They also have incentives to become more proficient and competitive because they fear losing out to foreign invested firms.The moving sum of FDI on production efficiency of B can be illust cropd in Figure 1. Production frontier of A and B, denotes the production frontier of B. At a steady state when input is improve at X0, the li teral level of domestic production is Yd0 without the effect of FDI. If FDI has a supreme degree impact on production efficiency at this steady state, or YB/FDIB 0, the actual level of production will jumpstart to Yf 0. The net moving effect of FDI on country Bs production is (Yf 0 Yd0). Second proposition catch that FDI is a shifter of the domestic production frontier. If FDI does not have a transmutation effect, the maximum output of B can never go above PFB. If FDI has a shifting effect, country Bs maximum potential output can be as high as those located on PFA, which is the production frontier of A. (Cobb-Douglas. Wikipedia. Retrieved April 20, 2010, from http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb%E2%80%93Douglas)Figure 3.1 Production Frontier of A and B and the role of FDI in B.Y PFAYftPFBYdtYf0Yd00 X0 X1XFor example, without a shifting effect, the actual level of production may move from Yf 0 at the sign steady state to Ydt at the new steady state with a new input mix Xt. The ma ximum possible output of B at the new level of input will be on PFB or below. If FDI has a shifting effect, the actual level of output can go above PFB, with a maximum potential output to be on PFA. In Fig. 1, if the new actual output is Yf t , which is placed amongst the two frontiers, it means that the production frontier of B has been shifted towards PFA from PFB. This positive shifting effect can be explicit as YB/FDI = f (t)0, implying that the marginal product of FDI is an increasing function of time (Yao and Wei, 2007).According to Yao and Wei (2007) indicate that with Propositions 1 and 2, country Bs production function can be rewritten as(3)And FDI is part of the multiplier ABt along with a roach of other changeables Z1 which can also improve production efficiency. Be gradients, FDI enters the residual term to be a shifter of the production frontier along with other variables, including a time crook t , which captures the Hicks neutral technological put across in B i n the absence of FDI or foreign technologies, t * FDI captures the additional technological progress that is attributed only to FDI. The total effect of FDI on economic growth in country B can be expressed as(4)The first part on the right-hand side of (4) measures the moving effect, and the second part the shifting effect of FDI on YB. If both effects are positive and momentous, the above two propositions hold true. mend the traditional growth theory considered only two factors of production, namely capital and labor, this new growth theory adds a third, technology. Endogenous growth theory or new growth theory focuses on the wider concept of technology, which is expressed through ideas, instead of objects or products. It necessitates a different set of institutional arrangements, like pricing systems, taxation or incentives to ensure the efficient tryst of ideas. These types of patterns are sometimes called Schumpeterian forges because Schumpeter emphasized the importance of te mporary monopolistic part over discoveries, as a motivating force for continued progressive impact.A great deal of evidence has been produced in recent years casting doubt on endogenetic growth theory. Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) argue that the classical growth model of Solow and Swan with exogenous technological progress and diminish returns to capital, excuses most of the cross-country variation in output per person. The Schumpeterian variant of endogenous growth theory that emphasizes technological progress, innovation and RD has come under specially heavy fire.Endogenous growth models attempt to explain a great proportion of discovered growth as well as wherefore different countries run across different growth rate. They generally use the classic model but allow the production function to exhibit increasing returns to scale, focus on externalities and assume that technological change, although beta, is not necessary to explain long-run growth. In 1986, paper of Ro mer ignores physical capital and only considers knowledge but a general form of his model can be written asY = A(R) F (Rj, Kj, Lj) (5)Where R j, K j and L j are, respectively, root turn outs from research and development expenditure by firm j, physical capital of firm j and labor of firm j R is the aggregate stock of knowledge. Any private research effort will have a spillover effect for the public stock of knowledge A(R). This type of model can explain why countries experience different growth rates. A country with an initial higher level of K experiences a higher rate of growth of K atomic number 82 to a higher rate of growth of per capita income because such a country is more experienced through learning by doing. This is an external effect that prevents diminishing returns.3.2 Model specificationThe previous empirical studies have proven that gross domestic product can be determined by the following variables labor and capital as rudimentary physical inputs exporting, FDI a nd foreign step in rate policy as variables of openness. The following model regression will include all these variables.(6)Where t (t = 1976, , 2008) denote year t, k and l capital stock (Gross fixed capital accumulation) and total labor force, fdi = FDI inflow, exp = total export and exc = solid flip rate. Lastly, the Y is the Gross domestic product in economic growth and the is mistake term. information for GDP are gain domestic product and capital is calibrated below based on investment in fixed summations. All the variables are calculated in 2000 constant prices. GDP is derived from sincere GDP annual superpoweres by province. Labor is total labor force in each province. FDI is actually use FDI inflows. Export is the total value of exports.The description of FDI in the production model needs careful consideration. Because capital stock is the accumulation of fixed asset investment, which includes both domestic and foreign investments, the production function would be mis-specified if FDI, both measured as a flow or stock, were added as another explanatory variable along with capital stock. In the previous literary productions, export and exchange rate also has been found to be relevant variables in the production function. Like FDI, export is defined as total FDI inflows and total export in Korea therefore can effect to output.The value of exports and FDI are provided in US dollars (USD) in the official statistics. Since they are measured in US dollars, most economic analysts do not bother to collapse the set in current prices into values in constant prices (e.g. Liu et al., 1997 Liu, 2000). It is important to conduct an appropriate deflation. One relevant deflator is the US consumer price index. The values of trade and FDI in nominal dollars are deflated by this index. Since all the other variables in the model are measured in KRW100, it is utilizable to change these two variables in KRW as well.Exchange rate is real exchange rate, which is time-variant but location-invariant as all the provinces faced the same foreign exchange rate. Beside this, real exchange rate should be derived from the exchange rates and price indexes of Koreas main trading partners. However, since KRW follows the US dollar very closely, albeit not pegged to the dollar, only the dollar exchange rate and the US price index are use to calculate the real exchange rate. concrete exchange rate is expected to have a positive sign charm on economic growth because it represents Chinas competitiveness in international trade and the extent of market liberalization in the foreign exchange market from Yao and Zhang (2001). The expectation result for the variable of capital stock, labor, human capital, FDI, export and real exchange rate are expect getting the significant and positive relationship to economic growth.3.3 Empirical methodology3.3.1 Unit root raiseA whole root riddle is vital in spy the stationery of time serial data. It is main to estim ate about the variables observed have a tendency to return to the long term trend follow a shock (stationery) or the variables follow a stochastic passport which containing a social unit root. If the variables follow a random walk after a temporary or permanent shock, the regression between variables is spurious (Amiruddin, Nor and Ismail 2007). According to the Grauss-Markovs theorem, in such cases, the serial do not have a finite variance. Hence the OLS will not produce consistent parameter estimates.A nonmoving series is one whose basic properties, for example it mean and its variance, do not change it over time. In contrast, a non- unmoving series has one or more basic properties that do change over time. If the time series variable is stationery,i) The mean of is constant over timeii) The variance of is constant over timeiii) The simplistic correlation coefficient between and depends on the length of the toss away (k) but on no other variable (for all k).The unit root l eaven can separate into 2 trial run, that is increase dicky Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips Perron (PP) test. This will test for level (original series), first differences and second differences (changes). If stationary at level, then the series are integrated of order zero, I(0) and if stationary at first differences and second differences, the series are integrated of order one and two, I(1) and I(2) respectively.The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic and Phillips-Perron test statistic to estimate the stationary for the variables. The results are and the assumption will indicate as belowHypothesisHo No stationaryHa StationaryHence, p-value should small tahan 0.05, then jilted Ho, that is stationary, if harm to reject Ho, that means no stationary.3.3.2 Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-Bound testThe Bound examen Method can use to estimate the small size ensample data in between 30 observations. Therefore, one of the conditions is the drug-addicted variables must be in I(1) and the dependent variables can be mixed in I(0) and I(1), but not the I(2). For example Y=a+b1X1+b2X2+b3X3+e. The variable Y must stationary at order one or I(1) and the X1,X2 and X3 can be in I(0) or I(1) or mixed. For the simplicity, the Bound testing can be shown as(7)The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) was used to establish co-integration relationships among the variables. And it can use to overcome the stationary problem in the time-series regression. The advantage of the ARDL method is it can be applied to the model whether the unconditional variables are stationary at I (0) or I (1). The dependent variable must stationary in I (1). As a result, a dynamic model known as the Autoregressive Distributed lag model (ARDL) will be estimated and can be written as(8)This equation shows that output growth is effects by values of explanatory variables as well as the lagged dependent and explanatory variables. The demarcation te st used the conventional F-test compare to the lively value to detect the presence of co-integrating relationship. The critical value is base on the Narayan (2005) postpone of critical values for the saltation test case III Unrestricted interpose and no trend. If the F-test is higher than the speeding dancing critical value, the hypothesis of no-co-integration is rejected. Beside this, if an F-statistic is begin than the turn down bound critical value implies that the absences of the co-integration. If the F-statistic is in between the lower bound and speed bound, there is no clear indication of the absence or man of co-integration relationship.Using Wald test to investigate the joint hypothesis is,HoHaThe conclusion for the hypothesis can be separate to three part, that isi) If the Wald F-statistic set above the upper critical value- cointegration exists.ii) If the Wald F-statistic falls down between the lower bound and upper bound critical value- inconclusive.iii) If th e Wald F-statistic falls below the lower bound critical value-no cointegration exists.Furthermore, an illusion Correlation Model (ECM) also use with the Bound test, the form is(9)Where, 1-L is the difference operator f(yt,xt)trend trend term long run multiplierTherefore, from the ARDL model, we can use the Bewleys (1979) regression burn up to obtain the long run model.(i=1,2,,k) (10)Where, and , i= 1,2,, k are the selected (estimated) values of and , i=1,2,..,k.However, the poor run dynamic model is estimated base on the Unrestricted Error bailiwick Model (UECM) model.(11)Where ECT represents as a long run steady point or partial appointment term as below(12)And using the Wald test to compute the long run elasticities and it measuring break is1-Sum of the dependent coefficients= Sum of the sovereign coefficients (13)3.4 DataThe secondary data set consists of the annually data of the Korea economy for the occlusion of 1976 to 2008 obtained from World Bank database, UC Atlas of Global Inequality, International Monetary farm animal (IMF), International Financial Statistic (IFS), Korea National Statistical and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Since the ultimate goal is to perform regression analysis with the data expressed in natural logarithms, it may instead handle to work with the log and proxy for variable as belowCHAPTER 4REGRESSION RESULTS4.0 IntroductionAugmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips Perron (PP) test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).4.1 Unit root testIn this study, two stationary tests on individual stochastic trend are conducted, that is Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) tests which have been used frequently I time series data. The value of ADF t-statistic and PP z-statistic will be compared to the critical value given by MacKinnon (1991). The time series under consideration should be integrated in the same order before we can proceed to cointegration analysis and condit ion test. The result can be show as below4.1.1 Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test found on the result as below Table 4.1.1, it show that result for Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic in Unit Root test. This test is function to know the stationary of data for variable. In the result, the dependent variable and all explanatory variables are significant on the first and second differences for the constant with trends and constant without trends. This is because the p-value is small than 0.05 at significant level. So, we will rejected Ho and conclude that the data is stationary when first difference. Therefore, all series are I(1) process. versatileLevelFirst DifferencesConstant with trendsConstant without trendsConstant with trendsConstant without trendst-statp-valuet-statp-valuet-statp-valuet-statp-value economical growth (y)-2.070027(0)0.54212.327602(0)0.9999-5.756136*(0)0.0003-4.782721*(0)0.0006Capital stock (k)-1.911924(0)0.6251-0.546014(0)0.8689-4.515321*(1)0.0060-4.361648*(0) 0.0017Labor force (l)-0.459604(0)0.9804-1.009485(0)0.6241-4.564489*(0)0.0051-4.425029*(0)0.0014FDI (fdi)-4.190134(1)0.0125-1.009485(3)0.7363-2.892944*(8)0.1825-6.300895*(2)0.0000Export (exp)2.708182(0)1.00005.784347(0)1.0000-3.567930*(0)0.0495-2.184710(0)0.2155Real exchange rate (exc)-2.246001(0)0.4496-1.594207(0)0.4739-5.035710*(0)0.0016-5.101766*(0)0.0002Table 4.1.1 Result Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testCriteria Schwarz Info Criterion (SIC)VariableLevelFirst DifferencesConstant with trendsConstant without trendsConstant with trendsConstant without trendst-statp-valuet-statp-valuet-statp-valuet-statp-valueEconomic growth (y)-2.815698(18)0.20233.136859(7)1.0000-6.399643*(11)0.0000-4.778071*(1)0.0006Capital stock (k)-2.096298(2)0.5282-0.519748(5)0.8745-4.100869*(7)0.0153-4.204347*(7)0.0026Labor force (l)-0.631981(1)0.9699-1.228256(1)0.6498-4.564489*(0)0.0051-4.423468*(1)0.0014FDI (fdi)-1.392163(31)0.8440-1.577055(31)0.4824-4.828185*(12)0.0027-5.032975*(13)0.0003Export (exp)4.40793 5(8)1.00006.050077(5)1.0000-3.555909*(1)0.0507-2.042327(1)0.2683Real exchange rate (exc)-2.374756(1)0.3848-1.615847(1)0.4631-4.981815*(3)0.0018-5.068019*(2)0.0003 personal line of credit The number in parenthesis are lag length. The test employ a null hypothesis of a unit root. All series are log transformed. *Indicate that 5% at significant level.Table 4.1.2 Result Phillips-Perron (PP) testCriteria Schwarz Info Criterion (SIC) air The number in parenthesis are lag length. The test employ a null hypothesis of a unit root. All series are log transformed. *Indicate that 5% at significant level.4.1.2 Phillips-Perron (PP) testBased on the result as above Table 4.1.2, it show that result for Phillips-Perron (PP) test statistic in Unit Root test. This test is function to know the stationary of data for variable. In the result, the dependent variable and all explanatory variables are significant on the first and second differences for the constant with trends and constant without trends. T his is because the p-value is small than 0.05 at significant level. So, we will rejected Ho and conclude that the data is stationary when first difference from the result of PP test. Therefore, all variables are integrated of order I(1).4.2 Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testThe condition of the bound testing is the dependent variable must be in I(1) and the independent variables can be mixed in I(0) and I(1). The y is I(1) and the independent variable is mixed in I(0) and I(1)., the estimation of co-integration can be done by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The Bound test technique is applied to examine the long run relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants. The result of the estimated ARDL model for Malaysia is reported as Table 4.2. The goodness of fit of the model (adjusted R-squared (Adjusted-R2)) and the standard error of regression are higher.Based on the table 4.2, includes the symptomatic tests used to confirm the validity of the mo del. These several important diagnostic test has been carry out in order to strengthen the verity of the results. The result of the diagnostic test indicated that the residual of the model is normally distributed. Beside this, there are no heteroskedasticitity and no serial correlation. However, the model successes to pass the Ramsey determine test. Since all the hazard is larger than 0.05 (5%) significant level. Thus, hypothesis failed to reject the Ho, hence there are absence of those problem in the model carried out.Note The critical values are cited from Narayan(2005).(Table case III Unrestricted intercept and no trendpg1988). *,**and *** denote significant at 10%,5% and 1% significance level, respectively.Based on the Table 4.3, the results of bound cointegration test simply demonstrated that the null hypothesis is, against the alternative hypothesis is easily rejected at 1% significant level. The model shows that the determinant variables are strongly cointegrated with ec onomic growth in Korea. The result showed that the F-statistic compute by Wald test is highly significant at 1% significance level. The F-statistic is 8.742069, which is greater than the upper critical bound value of 6.040, so it is showed that cointegration exists. Hence, based on the test result, there exist cointegration or long run relationship among the economic growth, capital stock, labor, foreign direct investment, export and real exchange rate.(14)Based on the Table 4.4 reported the long run elasticity between the variables use the ARDL test. The expected sign of the variables are indicate in this table and the estimated coefficient for capital stock (k) is positive 0.764333 and has consistent sign with the expected sign. This implies that an increase in the capital stock by 1 trillion US clam (US$), the gross domestic product (GDP) will increase 0.764333 billion US Dollar (US$). The standard error is 1.594101 and probability 0.6359 is the p-value in the model.For the lab or force (l), the estimated coefficient is positive sign, it is 25318.75 and which is consistent with the expected sign. The coefficient means that when 1 unit labor force increase, the GDP will increase 25318.75 US Dollar (US$). The probability is 0.4858 and standard error is 35765.61.In addition, the foreign direct investment (fdi) in estimated coefficient is positive 5.627353 and same with the expected sign. This indicate that when increase 1 billion US Dollar (US$) in the foreign direct investment, the GDP will increase 5.627353 billion US Dollar (US$). The p-value is 0.4313 and standard error is 7.032203.The estimated coefficient for export (exp) is positive 0.798721, it has consistent sign with the expected sign. This implies that an increase 1 billion US Dollar (US$) in export, the GDP will increase 0.798721 billion US Dollar (US$). The standard error for export is 0.204665 and the probability is 0.0007.In the case of real exchange rate (exc), the estimated coefficient is pos itive 173672187.2 and is kindred with the expected sign. The coefficient means that when real exchange rate increase in 1 units of Korea Won 100 (KRW100) per US$ 1, the GDP will leads to increase in 173672187.2 US Dollar (US$). The p-value for real exchange rate is 0.1910 and standard error is 1.29E+18.4.5 The Error Correction Model (ECM) testThe result of the Error Correction Model is reported at Table 4.6 and the Error Correction Term (ECT) is shows as below(15)So, the ECT equation will be generated into compact run dynamic model.Based on the Table 4.5, the error correction term (ECT) is -0.090218. This implies that speed of adjustment to the long run stableness is very slow which is 0.09. It is negative sign and rapid adjustment from a short term imbalance. The negative sign of the ECT means when there is a short run shocks occur, the gap is closed towards the adjustment process to the long run stability. This implies that the imbalance of output growth in the short run maybe a djusted with error corrections that resume the long term equilibrium. Approximately a high percentage of 89.7% of the gross domestic product can be clarify by the capital stock, labor, foreign direct investment, export and real exchange rate selected.Furthermore, the variable of capital stock (k) is significantly influence the gross domestic product (GDP/y) in the short run. The capital stock represents the gross fixed capital formation to be the most important factor that influences the gross domestic product in Korea. The capital stock, labor (l), foreign direct investment (fdi), export (exp) and real exchange rate (exc) is statistically positive influence in the current year of gross domestic product. As mentioned in literature review, this all explanatory variables should be elastic, portrays a positive sign and is should be a statistically variable in most of the research.In the short run, capital stock is statistically significant and positive sign to the gross domestic produc t for Korea. When capital stock is increase 1 billion US Dollar (US$), the gross domestic product will attracts close to increase 1.249795 billion US Dollar (US$). Beside this, when the labor is increase 1 unit labor force, the gross domestic product will increase 2308.908 US Dollar (US$). And if the foreign direct investment increase 1 billion US Dollar (US$), the gross domestic product will increase 0.508124 billion US Dollar (US$). If export increase in 1 billion US Dollar (US$), gross domestic product will increase 0.072330 billion US Dollar (US$). Lastly, when the real exchange rate is increase in 1 units of Korea Won 100(KRW100) per US$ 1, the GDP will increase in 15708616 US Dollar (US$).